A Pilot Model for Estimating Pedestrian Intersection Crossing Volumes

Better data on pedestrian volumes are needed to improve the safety, comfort, and convenience of pedestrian movement. This requires more carefully-developed methodologies for counting pedestrians as well as improved methods of modeling pedestrian volumes. This paper describes the methodology used to create a simple, pilot model of pedestrian intersection crossing volumes in Alameda County, CA. The model is based on weekly pedestrian volumes at a sample of 50 intersections with a wide variety of surrounding land uses, transportation system attributes, and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics. Three alternative model structures were considered, and the final recommended model has a good overall fit (adjusted-R2=0.897). Statistically-significant factors in the model include the total population within a 0.5-mile radius, employment within a 0.25-mile radius, number of commercial retail properties within a 0.25- mile radius, and the presence of a regional transit station within a 0.1-mile radius of an intersection. The model has a simple structure, and it can be implemented by practitioners using geographic information systems and a basic spreadsheet program. Since the study is based on a relatively small number of intersections in one urban area, additional research is needed to refine the model and determine its applicability in other areas.